Résumé
Le système bancaire congolais face à la crise de la covid-19
Auteur (s) : Daniel Kavula Muheta et Jonas Kibala Kuma
Abstract :
This study proposed to simulate the probable effects of covid-19 on the congolese banking system in order to direct the decision makers towards actions likely to preserve financial stability. With this intention, making recourse to the econometric approach, we estimated the ARDL and GARCH models to release the impact of certain macroeconomic variables (rate of exchange, inflation, etc.) on some financial soundness indicators of the DRC banking system, accordind to the literature and taking account of the nature of the shock created by the covid-19 crisis (shocks of supply and demand) and certain stylized facts on the DRC’s economy and its financial system. Then, on the basis of economic outlook on DRC (the IMF, BCC), we simulated the indirect effects of the covid-19 crisis on the congolese banking environment, according of the released impacts. Our results (estimation and simulation) reveal that, in spite of the measures adopted to struggle this pandemic, in comparison with the dark economic outlooks on the congolese economy, to which are added the structural problems from which the country suffers since decades, persistence for the covid-19 crisis will negatively impact the congolese banking environment and can cause a banking crisis at worst of the cases. From where, it holds, for the congolese autorities, to consider the possibility of the subsidies and other forms of financing of the State to the banking system to avoid the bankruptcy of the establishments strongly struck by the Covid-19 crisis..
Editeur : RECOSH
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